Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 2.119129 2.228833 2.346644 2.483617 2.639886 2.814397 3.026667
2025-10-19 2.005105 2.142222 2.295025 2.480473 2.703209 2.967512 3.314022
2025-10-26 1.936919 2.091593 2.268446 2.489834 2.766265 3.110567 3.591914
2025-11-02 1.860763 2.022578 2.210572 2.450607 2.758090 3.154028 3.734004
2025-11-09 1.813128 1.982257 2.181570 2.440671 2.780590 3.232547 3.926484
2025-11-16 1.774946 1.949848 2.158425 2.433737 2.802476 3.306992 4.116471
2025-11-23 1.740485 1.919388 2.134799 2.422719 2.815081 3.365287 4.283533
2025-11-30 1.724436 1.909931 2.135715 2.441851 2.867530 3.482256 4.559827
2025-12-07 1.674349 1.856112 2.077850 2.379401 2.800496 3.412461 4.496927
2025-12-14 1.649257 1.832402 2.057095 2.364989 2.799643 3.441704 4.612544
2025-12-21 1.622035 1.804946 2.030230 2.340567 2.782029 3.441762 4.670190
2025-12-28 1.620876 1.809871 2.044695 2.372039 2.845876 3.573356 4.997620
2026-01-04 1.631013 1.829811 2.079814 2.434170 2.960048 3.800245 5.580128
2026-01-11 1.614350 1.814597 2.067669 2.428853 2.970511 3.850959 5.784551
2026-01-18 1.603798 1.806703 2.064590 2.435593 2.998840 3.933362 6.079378
2026-01-25 1.576366 1.776202 2.030339 2.396248 2.952475 3.877350 6.011492
2026-02-01 1.561055 1.761022 2.016098 2.384947 2.949411 3.898751 6.146567
2026-02-08 1.547809 1.748123 2.004420 2.376634 2.950106 3.925867 6.299330
2026-02-15 1.533924 1.734018 1.990637 2.364576 2.943771 3.938398 6.411299
2026-02-22 1.531626 1.734807 1.996714 2.381154 2.983547 4.039351 6.799463
2026-03-01 1.501087 1.698039 1.951071 2.320708 2.895509 3.889463 6.402493
2026-03-08 1.488220 1.684325 1.936596 2.305809 2.881651 3.882607 6.445908
2026-03-15 1.472350 1.666421 1.916099 2.281562 2.851672 3.843020 6.383979